Ignore the tariff turmoil, Applied Materials ($AMAT) is still attractive

Tariff announcements are coming at the market fast. Applied Materials seems to be in the cross-hairs. How should investors react?

Short disclaimer: Trump’s tariffs were announced yesterday. Markets are moving so fast that it is hard to write about it - my thoughts seem almost obsolete within minutes. I wrote this piece quickly to put down some thoughts about one of my favorite picks: $AMAT.

One month ago I released a presentation / podcast on Applied Materials (trading symbol $AMAT). They are one of the largest suppliers of tools and equipment needed to manufacture semiconductors. Its a cyclical business and I had argued that we were nearing (but not at) the bottom of a cycle and that long-term investors could benefit tremendously during the next bull run.

In fact, I had a pretty optimistic price target of $292-$330 per share (90% to 110% upside) to be hit in the next 36 months [see slide below]

Although I did mention emerging risks from tariffs and geopolitics, I largely ignored these in my valuation as I thought most of the risks were manageable. Export controls had already been put in place and had worked their …