The Buyside Desk

The Buyside Desk

Buy Side Research

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have massive upside potential

President Trump validates my previous analysis with major policy announcement; investors should take note - there is massive upside coming

Stephen McNamara's avatar
Stephen McNamara
Jun 06, 2025
∙ Paid

In my last article, I covered why I think Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (trading symbols $FNMA and $FMCC respectively) will have their conservatorships ended by end of 2028. The article contained an analysis of their financials, capital levels their Enterprise Regulatory Capital Framework (ERCF) requirements. Less than 2 days after this article was published, President Trump made another policy announcement regarding these companies [see below]

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This was the second major announcement about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the last two weeks, and investors should take note of the change in tone. In the first announcement, President Trump said “I am giving very serious consideration to brining Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac public…and will be making a decision in the near future”. Now note the above post: “I am working on taking these amazing companies public”. In other words - President Trump’s decision has been made and the conservatorships will end on his watch (i.e. by the end of 2028). I didn’t expect my previous analysis to get validated so quickly, but I’ll take it.

Now the major questions become (1) What needs to happen to achieve President Trump’s objectives? and (2) How much are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac worth?

I’ll address these questions in reverse order, with this article focusing on updating my price targets. I build on my prior content and cover valuation methodology (including a review of Pershing Square’s methodology), shareholder dilution and my price targets for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The details are behind a paywall (paid subscribers can continue reading). Suffice to say, the shares are up ~600% in the last 12 months and I think they still have massive upside potential. Free subscribers should consider upgrading to paid for this one - the potential upside on these stocks is huge. It might be the single best investing decision you’ll make.

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